Research | Farming in 2050

What are the issues facing farm housing in the status quo?

Summary: Farms are losing labor and H2A temporary guest worker programs are failing because the program requires farms to provide housing and transportation for the farmworkers, something that they cannot provide to code. DOL standards indicate:

• Must provide 50 square feet per person with beds >36 inches apart and >12 inches off the floor for single beds and >48 inches separating bunk beds for workers to sleep only
• Must provide 100 square feet per person in a room where workers cook, live, and sleep
• One stove per 10 persons or one stove per 2 families
• One shower head per 10 persons, one laundry facility per 30 persons
• • Every service building must be provided with equipment capable of maintaining a temperature of at least 70 degrees Fahrenheit during cold weather. (29 CFR 1910.142(f)(4))
• Sufficient Lighting
• Where electricity is available, each habitable room must be provided with at least one ceiling-type light fixture and at least one separate floor- or wall-type convenience outlet. Laundry and toilet room
• Refuse disposal
• Garbage containers must be emptied when full, and at least twice a week. (29 CFR 1910.142(h)(3))
• Source: H2A labor standards: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/26g-housing-standards-for-rental-and-public-accommodations-H-2A

[Guthman, 2019 pg. 144]

What will food systems look like in 2050?

• Summary: Looking ahead to 2045, the current agribusiness-as-usual will continue to perpetuate environmental breakdown and social dislocation; however, a Long Food Movement incorporating reforms including a return to indigenous agricultural practices can restore food systems
• “OPPORTUNITY #1 Building resilience through diversity and agroecology. Over the 2020s, a growing premium is placed on healthy soils, diverse crop varieties and livestock breeds, and vibrant aquatic- and agro-ecosystems. The impacts of different production systems become easier to measure, and by 2030, agroecological systems are in place and outperforming industrial agriculture at multiple scales. Indigenous peoples and peasants continue to safeguard landscapes and nurture neglected and underutilized species and crop wild relatives via expanding community gene banks and living collections” [6]
• Food system currently facing biodiversity loss, climate change, and rapidly declining soil fertility, causing hunger and health issues
• “In 2019, an estimated 690 million people were hungry and upwards of 2 billion lacked regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food. This was before COVID-19 added approximately 130 million people to the world’s hungry, pushed uncounted millions more to the brink of hunger, and put one third of food and farming livelihoods at risk.” [3]

[IPES, 5]

• Summary: Current global agricultural practices are only sustainable for 3.4 billion people, but populations will reach >9 billion in 2050. It is possible to feed that many people sustainably thru changes including improved water/nutrients/land management (+2.2B) and reduced food loss [+1.1B]
• “Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience.”
• “four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows)”
• “If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, … transformation toward more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analyzed.”
• “Key prerequisite are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes”
• “Further PB transgressions could jeopardize the chances of providing sufficient food for a world population projected to be wealthier and reach >9 billion by 2050. This conundrum portrays a tradeoff between Earth’s biophysical carrying capacity and humankind’s ris- ing food demand, calling in response for radical rethinking of food production and consumption patterns” [200]

H2A labor standards: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/26g-housing-standards-for-rental-and-public-accommodations-H-2A